WE ARE ALL GONNA DIE: HOW THE WEAK POINTS OF THE POWER GRID LEAVE THE UNITED STATES WITH AN UNACCEPTABLE RISK

Federal regulations aim to ensure grid reliability and harden it against outages; however, widespread outages continue. This thesis examines the spectrum of regulations to evaluate them. It outlines their structure, the regulations’ intent, and weighs them against evolving cyber and physical threats and natural disaster risks. Currently, the regulatory structure is incapable of providing uniform security. Federal standards protect only the transmission portion of the grid, leaving the distribution section vulnerable to attack due to varying regulations from state to state, or county to county. The regulations cannot adapt quickly enough to meet dynamic threats, rendering them less effective. Cyber threats can be so agile that protectors are unaware of vulnerabilities, and patching requirements are too lengthy, which increases the risk exposure. No current weather mitigation or standard is capable of protecting the grid despite regular natural disasters that cause power shutdowns. The thesis concludes that bridging these gaps requires not increasing protection standards, but redundancy. Redundancy, mirrored after the UK's infrastructure policy, is more likely to reduce failure risk through layered components and systems. Microgrids are proven effective in disasters to successfully deliver such redundancy and should be implemented across all critical infrastructure sectors.Civilian, Department of Homeland SecurityApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

A Holistic Approach to Leading in Dangerous Situations

Dangerous contexts place unique psychological, physical, and social demands on leaders and organizations. To prepare for these unique demands, leaders, group members, and organizations need to develop greater levels of trustworthiness, psychological hardiness, and cohesion and stronger leader-follower partnership relationships compared to leaders and organizations that operate in non-dangerous contexts. Given that the demands of dangerous contexts affect all individuals and their relationships with the group and the organization\u27s systems, a systems-based perspective seems to be a logical foundation for fostering holistic development to prepare for the unique challenges of leading and operating in dangerous situations

Extended Photometry for the DEEP2 Galaxy Redshift Survey: A Testbed for Photometric Redshift Experiments

This paper describes a new catalog that supplements the existing DEEP2 Galaxy Redshift Survey photometric and spectroscopic catalogs with ugriz photometry from two other surveys; the Canada-France-Hawaii Legacy Survey (CFHTLS) and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). Each catalog is cross-matched by position on the sky in order to assign ugriz photometry to objects in the DEEP2 catalogs. We have recalibrated the CFHTLS photometry where it overlaps DEEP2 in order to provide a more uniform dataset. We have also used this improved photometry to predict DEEP2 BRI photometry in regions where only poorer measurements were available previously. In addition, we have included improved astrometry tied to SDSS rather than USNO-A2.0 for all DEEP2 objects. In total this catalog contains ~27,000 objects with full ugriz photometry as well as robust spectroscopic redshift measurements, 64% of which have r > 23. By combining the secure and accurate redshifts of the DEEP2 Galaxy Redshift Survey with ugriz photometry, we have created a catalog that can be used as an excellent testbed for future photo-z studies, including tests of algorithms for surveys such as LSST and DES.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures and 5 tables. Accepted to The Astrophysical Journal Supplement. Catalogs are publicly available at http://deep.ps.uci.edu/DR4/photo.extended.htm

Maternal pomegranate juice intake and brain structure and function in infants with intrauterine growth restriction: A randomized controlled pilot study.

Polyphenol-rich pomegranate juice has been shown to have benefit as a neuroprotectant in animal models of neonatal hypoxic-ischemia. No published studies have investigated maternal polyphenol administration as a potential neuroprotectant in at-risk newborns, such as those with intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR). This was a randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind pilot study to investigate the impact of maternal pomegranate juice intake in pregnancies with IUGR, on newborn brain structure and function at term-equivalent age (TEA). Mothers with IUGR at 24-34 weeks\u27 gestation were recruited from Barnes-Jewish Hospital obstetrical clinic. Consented mothers were randomized to treatment (8 oz. pomegranate juice) or placebo (8 oz. polyphenol-free juice) and continued to take juice daily from enrollment until delivery (mean 20.1 and 27.1 days, respectively). Infants underwent brain MRI at TEA (36-41 weeks\u27 gestation). Brain measures were compared between groups including: brain injury score, brain metrics, brain volumes, diffusion tensor imaging and resting state functional connectivity. Statistical analyses were undertaken as modified intention-to-treat (including randomized participants who received their allocated intervention and whose infants received brain MRI) and per-protocol (including participants who strictly adhered to the protocol, based on metabolite status). Seventy-seven mothers were randomized to treatment (n = 40) or placebo (n = 37). Of these, 28 and 27 infants, respectively, underwent term-equivalent MRI. There were no group differences in brain injury, metrics or volumes. However, treatment subjects displayed reduced diffusivity within the anterior and posterior limbs of the internal capsule compared with placebo. Resting state functional connectivity demonstrated increased correlation and covariance within several networks in treatment subjects, with alterations most apparent in the visual network in per-protocol analyses. Direct effects on health were not found. In conclusion, maternal pomegranate juice intake in pregnancies with known IUGR was associated with altered white matter organization and functional connectivity in the infant brain, suggesting differences in brain structure and function following in utero pomegranate juice exposure, warranting continued investigation. Clinical trial registration. NCT00788866, registered November 11, 2008, initial participant enrollment August 21, 2012

A holistic multi-scale approach to using 3D scanning technology in accident reconstruction

Three-dimensional scanning and documentation methods are becoming increasingly employed by law enforcement personnel for crime scene and accident scene recording. Three-dimensional documentation of the victim’s body in such cases is also increasingly used as the field of forensic radiology and imaging is expanding rapidly. These scanning technologies enable a more complete and detailed documentation than standard autopsy. This was used to examine a fatal pedestrian-vehicle collision where the pedestrian was killed by a van whilst crossing the road. Two competing scenarios were considered for the vehicle speed calculation: the pedestrian being projected forward by the impact or the pedestrian being carried on the vehicle’s bonnet. In order to assist with this, the impact area of the accident vehicle was scanned using laser surface scanning, the victim was scanned using postmortem CT and micro-CT and the data sets were combined to virtually match features of the vehicle to injuries on the victim. Micro-CT revealed additional injuries not previously detected, lending support to the pedestrian-carry theory

Leading in Dangerous Situations \u3ci\u3eAn Overview of the Unique Challenges\u3c/i\u3e

The idea for Leadership in Dangerous Situations: A Handbook for the Armed Forces, Emergency Services, and First Responders evolved from the editors\u27 collective experiences and research in dangerous contexts and from Patrick J. Sweeneys experience directing a course in combat leadership at the United States Military Academy, West Point. We discovered that the leadership literature lacked a comprehensive guide outlining how and why leadership is different in dangerous contexts; how to prepare oneself and followers for the unique challenges of operating in such contexts and how to recover following exposure to adversity; how to lead when group members face danger; and how to leverage organizational systems to facilitate group members\u27 resilience in the face of and after adversities associated with dangerous contexts. The intent of Leadership in Dangerous Situations is to fill the gap in the leadership literature by providing the brave men and women who risk their lives to serve the public a comprehensive and easily understandable guide, backed by research, to prepare themselves and their units for the unique psychological, social, and organizational challenges of leading and operating in dangerous contexts

Annealed Flow Transport Monte Carlo

Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) and its Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) extensions are state-of-the-art methods for estimating normalizing constants of probability distributions. We propose here a novel Monte Carlo algorithm, Annealed Flow Transport (AFT), that builds upon AIS and SMC and combines them with normalizing flows (NFs) for improved performance. This method transports a set of particles using not only importance sampling (IS), Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and resampling steps - as in SMC, but also relies on NFs which are learned sequentially to push particles towards the successive annealed targets. We provide limit theorems for the resulting Monte Carlo estimates of the normalizing constant and expectations with respect to the target distribution. Additionally, we show that a continuous-time scaling limit of the population version of AFT is given by a Feynman--Kac measure which simplifies to the law of a controlled diffusion for expressive NFs. We demonstrate experimentally the benefits and limitations of our methodology on a variety of applications

High-accuracy waveforms for binary black hole inspiral, merger, and ringdown

The first spectral numerical simulations of 16 orbits, merger, and ringdown of an equal-mass non-spinning binary black hole system are presented. Gravitational waveforms from these simulations have accumulated numerical phase errors through ringdown of ~0.1 radian when measured from the beginning of the simulation, and ~0.02 radian when waveforms are time and phase shifted to agree at the peak amplitude. The waveform seen by an observer at infinity is determined from waveforms computed at finite radii by an extrapolation process accurate to ~0.01 radian in phase. The phase difference between this waveform at infinity and the waveform measured at a finite radius of r=100M is about half a radian. The ratio of final mass to initial mass is M_f/M = 0.95162 +- 0.00002, and the final black hole spin is S_f/M_f^2=0.68646 +- 0.00004.Comment: 15 pages, 11 figures; New figure added, text edited to improve clarity, waveform made availabl

Future enhancements to ground-based microburst detection

This set of viewgraphs presents the results of the Cockpit Weather Information (CWI) program at M.I.T. Lincoln Laboratory. The CWI program has been funded through NaSA Langley Research Center by the joint NASA/FAA Integrated Airborne Wind Shear Program for the past four years. During this time, over 120 microburst penetrations by research aircraft have been conducted under Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) testbed radar surveillance at Orlando, FL. The results of these in-situ measurements have been compared with ground-based detection methods. Several valuable insights were gained from this research activity. First, it was found that the current TDWR microburst shapes do not permit accurate characterization of microburst hazard in terms of the F factor hazard index, because they are based on loss value rather than shear. Second, it was found that the horizontal component of the F factor can be accurately estimated from shear, provided compensation is made for the dependence of outflow strength on altitude. Third, it was found that a simple continuity assumption for estimating the vertical component of the F factor yielded poor results. However, further research has shown that downdraft strength is correlated with features aloft detected by the TDWR radar scan strategy. The outcome of the CWI program is to move from the loss-based wind shear detection algorithm used in the TDWR to a shear-based detection scheme as proposed in the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS)

Physical Activity Reduces Hippocampal Atrophy in Elders at Genetic Risk for Alzheimer\u27s Disease

We examined the impact of physical activity (PA) on longitudinal change in hippocampal volume in cognitively intact older adults at varying genetic risk for the sporadic form of Alzheimer\u27s disease (AD). Hippocampal volume was measured from structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans administered at baseline and at an 18-month follow-up in 97 healthy, cognitively intact older adults. Participants were classified as High or Low PA based on a self-report questionnaire of frequency and intensity of exercise. Risk status was defined by the presence or absence of the apolipoprotein E-epsilon 4 (APOE-ε4) allele. Four subgroups were studied: Low Risk/High PA (n = 24), Low Risk/Low PA (n = 34), High Risk/High PA (n = 22), and High Risk/Low PA (n = 17). Over the 18 month follow-up interval, hippocampal volume decreased by 3% in the High Risk/Low PA group, but remained stable in the three remaining groups. No main effects or interactions between genetic risk and PA were observed in control brain regions, including the caudate, amygdala, thalamus, pre-central gyrus, caudal middle frontal gyrus, cortical white matter (WM), and total gray matter (GM). These findings suggest that PA may help to preserve hippocampal volume in individuals at increased genetic risk for AD. The protective effects of PA on hippocampal atrophy were not observed in individuals at low risk for AD. These data suggest that individuals at genetic risk for AD should be targeted for increased levels of PA as a means of reducing atrophy in a brain region critical for the formation of episodic memories